Why Mercedes thinks “No One” will challenge its record in the new F1 era Those in Formula One who is concerned that Red Bull will soon take over as Mercedes did from 2014 to 20 may wish to take a breather. According to Toto Wolff, the new F1 rules will prevent this.
The new ground effect era of Formula One’s first season did not close the field as expected. While Ferrari rose to second place, Mercedes fell to third, and Red Bull won both championships, the biggest F1 teams were still mostly in a class of their own when it came to competition.
The starting order could be divided into five distinct tiers: Red Bull and Ferrari were ahead of Mercedes, which was ahead of McLaren and Alpine, while Alfa Romeo, Aston Martin, Haas, and AlphaTauri formed a distinct group in the middle, with Williams coming in last.
Wolff stated that he believes that F1’s budget cap, in conjunction with Aerodynamic Testing Restrictions designed to penalize the most successful teams and boost the least successful, will sufficiently handicap the front of the grid to prevent a repeat of Mercedes’ own runaway success, which included eight consecutive constructors’ titles.
Despite the fact that Red Bull won both championships in 2022, the current competitive landscape of Formula One appears to be as imbalanced as ever.
Even though F1’s haves have the inherent advantage of prior knowledge and larger residual budgets to spend on drivers and infrastructure, Wolff argued that F1’s haves will fall prey to its have-nots as these relatively immature technical and financial regulations set in and begin to bite harder.
Of course, Wolff’s theory doesn’t allow teams to spend too much to win a championship, as Red Bull was recently found guilty of in 2021 and went on to win it. However, Red Bull will now have to pay what Christian Horner thinks is a hefty price for that mistake in the form of restrictions on how much further his team can develop its car in 2023.
Due to the budget cap, Ferrari has also acknowledged that it did not have sufficient funds to develop the F1’s best car in 2022.
Wolff added, “How the ATR regulations have been set in place allows teams that are further back to really make a big jump compared to the frontrunners.” He estimated that Red Bull will have “24% less WindTunnel time” in 2023 to use for development.
“This is also why we will see championships that are much closer in the future because, if you finish last, you will get 50 percent or 40 percent more time in the wind tunnel—clearly that is an advantage we will use.”
“Who knows if it is a given that we will catch them (Red Bull)?
It’s all about small gains, and I believe we’ve gotten closer to Ferrari in the final quarter of the season.
Mercedes is now one of many teams and the best positioned to try to get back to the front-of-the-grid competition with Red Bull and Ferrari after a difficult 2022 season.
Alpine, which recently made investments to rebuild its F1 infrastructure and was occasionally able to race Mercedes in 2022, is also on a positive path again.
McLaren claims that breaking through F1’s midfield ceiling will require the introduction of new infrastructure over the next few seasons.
Aston Martin comparatively accepts the sped-up speculation of Lawrence Walk ought to put it (and Fernando Alonso) in the blend inside the following three seasons.
The other four teams—Alfa Romeo, Haas, AlphaTauri, and Williams—have a long way to go because they are all still, to varying degrees, significantly further behind in developing the budgets and infrastructure required to consistently compete higher up the grid.
However, Haas anticipates operating at F1’s budget cap in 2023 after signing a new title sponsor, while Alfa/Sauber will soon take significant investment from Audi, which should accelerate that team’s progress prior to Audi’s official arrival as an engine builder and works for the team in 2026.
There are numerous reasons to be cheerful, but it is important to keep in mind that Mercedes must eliminate a qualifying deficit of 0.6 seconds over Ferrari and Red Bull. Add 0.5 seconds for Alpine and McLaren.Williams, which benefits most from next season’s ATR having completed rearward in the constructors’ title, necessities to upset a shortfall of over two seconds to arrive at the front of the matrix.
F1’s expected perfect world actually feels far off. The true test of F1’s new era and Wolff’s theory will be whether any of the smaller teams can properly break the three-team monopoly at the front and whether even powerful teams like Ferrari and Mercedes can return to winning championships before Max Verstappen’s Red Bull contract ends in 2028.