The Ultimate Draft Board For All-Consistency in Fantasy Football
The Ultimate Draft Board For All-Consistency in Fantasy Football: There are few things better than knowing that you have a reliable, consistent player to plug into your lineup.
Consistency is defined in a number of ways in the world of fantasy football. Tyler Lockett, for example, has enjoyed a level of consistency that not many have ever seen: he’s been the only player to average over 950 receiving yards and eight receptions per season in each of the last four years.
His production fluctuated from week to week, but he had impressive games in Week 2 (31.8 points) and Week 9 (27.9) of the 2020 season. Over one-third of his fantasy points for the entire season came in two games, with the other 27 coming at a much lower rate.
Drafting a fantasy football team requires both boom-and-bust players and high-floor players. The following list is simply which to draft in every round. These players aren’t the ones to take in every round, but they take some big swings that balance out with safer bets. Here are the safe picks for your roster.
Mixon is one of the better running backs in the NFL, as he consistently plays a high percentage of offensive snaps for the Bengals. In an era where many teams have running backs share carries, Mixon still has more than 20 touches per game.
That’s why Mixon is going so early in the first round. It also helps that he has a ton of opportunities. Mixon set career highs in receiving yards and routes ran while posting a career low 2.1% drop rate.
In 12 games last season, Mixon had double-digit points while Cook, who is now being drafted ahead of Mixon, only did so in two. In year-over-year consistency, Mixon has been a top-10 running back each of the last two years.
The Bengals have upgraded the offensive line with three new starters, which will help them in the ground game. Last year’s Cincinnati ball carriers averaged just 0.9 yards per rush before contact, second-worst in NFL history. This coming year will be much different—another point of optimism for Joe Mixon and other players who prefer lower risk picks late in the first round.
Jones, the Pittsburgh Steelers running back, has a high floor with 1,150 yards from scrimmage and 10 touchdowns over the past three years. There is little to no variance in his game over time.
In 2018, Darren Jones had his least yards rushing in his career and still finished top 12 as an RB with the most total points and points per game. A major part of his consistency is his receiving skills- Jones is the only back to run 250 routes over the last three seasons, reaching 20% of their intended targets each of those years.
Jones would have concern over A.J. Dillon’s attendance, but he played 55% of snaps last year, on par with 2019 (56%) and 2020 (57%). He remains the lead rusher and is still likely to be playing at that capacity in 2020.
Green Bay needs an option in the team’s offense, considering that there is a receivers-sized hole without Davante Adams. With Adams gone, they may be more run-heavy near the endzone.
Round 3: WR Mike Evans. ADP: 26th. He has been consistently productive throughout his career.
With eight 100-catch seasons in a row and an active streak of 8 straight 1,000 yard years, Evans is well known as one of the best receivers in NFL history. The record for most catches per season is held by Tarik Glenn with 69.8%. Evans’ eight 65-catch seasons are tied for the longest active streak in the league.
With Tom Brady in since 2013, Julian Edelman averaged 7.2 yards per reception and 17 touchdowns on deep passes. Meanwhile, Tyrell Williams (23 receptions with 8 touchdowns) and Jarvis Landry (23 receptions with 8 touchdowns), the two fastest receivers in the league, are one and two respectively. It’s no coincidence that Evans career has skyrocketed since Brady came along.
In the last two seasons, Evans has been one of the top wide receivers in PPR formats that have at least 15 fantasy points a game.
Round 4: WR Michael Pittman Jr. ADP 37th. Pittman Jr. increased his receptions and receiving yards from last season, catching six total touchdowns where as he only caught one in his rookie season.
Owners of Pittman Jr. will likely be more comfortable investing in the young player after seeing that, after Carson Wentz, he has Matt Ryan throwing him passes in practice. Last season, he accounted for 27% of the team’s catches (third in the NFL), 30% of its receiving yards (ninth) and 26% of its targets (10th). This season, with Julio Jones no longer on the roster, it appears to be business as usual for Pittman Jr.
In the 4 games in which Pittman Jr. saw 10 targets last year, he averaged 20.2 points per game. Expect a lot more high-target opportunities for Pittman Jr. in 2022.
Last season was a historic one for WR D.J. Moore. In fact, he’s the only player in NFL history to reach at least 1,100 yards receiving and touchdown in three straight seasons. The good news is that half of it is good on the glassiness scale; that should also be viewed as half-empty as well.
Vonn Moore could provide steady production even if he doesn’t find the end zone. His 423 targets over the last three years have led to him being a top-25 wide receiver in total points scored each of those seasons and his 33 double-digit fantasy points are tied for seventh among wide receivers. If you believe that positive touchdown regression exists, he will exceed his ADP.
The case for Hurts is a simple one: he averaged 15 points per game last year, tied for 4th among quarterbacks. The Eagles added another receiver this offseason; and yet, Hurts is still going as the 7th quarterback off the board
Jalen Hurts has had a strong preseason and is the favorite to be Alabama’s starter under Coach Saban in 2022. His rushing ability gives him a high floor and high ceiling, because it is one of the best in the NFL.
TE Dallas Goedert: ADP of 77th. Dallas Goeder excelled through the back half of last season in both raw stats and as part of a time share with Zach Ertz. And he performed that well despite not playing in Week 18, when Philadelphia’s starters rested.
In his first year as a starter, Goedert finished second in yards per route run at the tight end position, behind only George Kittle. He caught 14 passes of 20+ yards last season – fourth most among tight ends. In week 7-14, he was the TE1.
With his excellent ball skills and close relationship with Hurts, Goedert is top-shelf in the second round due to his projected volume.
Russell Wilson has 292 passing touchdowns. In the last four years, he’s posted a 6% touchdown rate each year even though Seattle is throwing the ball on an NFL-low 50% of snaps. As the best QB in terms of his relative value in terms of touchdowns, Russell Wilson is a strong floor option who only just trails elite names in that category: Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers.
In 3 of the last 5 seasons, Wilson has finished in the top 10 in Quarterback points-per-game. QB11 Last Season. Despite going to an offense that will focus more on passing and a wide array of talented skill position players, he is still being drafted as QB10. Wilson is a great candidate to exceed his ADP with his high floor.
Melvin Gordon III: ADP: 98th. The list includes someone who most people might consider to be a frustrating but inconvenient truth for Jets fans. Last season, Gordon was RB23 on a per-game basis, which was the same as Javonte Williams (RB25).
Gordon has never finished worse than RB25 in 9 of the past 10 years, and while it’s true that he’s had a bigger role than he is projected to this year, he’s currently had an ADP of 36th running back off the board which makes him a strong value due to his high-floor output.
This part of the draft often features talented players who show plenty the first few years and fight for the breakout opportunities to transcend their star status. With that in mind, Williams is a player to look out for in whether you want him as your primary running back or as depth.