The Most Improved Player odds: The Best preseason bets on the National Basketball Association’s most flawed award
The Most Improved Player odds: The Best preseason bets on the National Basketball Association’s most flawed award. The most improved player award of the National Basketball Association is perhaps the league’s worst-named honor for any player. Here is the look to gander at the numbers posted by the last six winners in the season prior to winning the award.
| Points Per Game | Points Per Game | Assists Per Game | Rebounds per Game | Starts |
| Ja Morant | 19.1 | 7.4 | 4 | 63 |
| Julius Randle | 19.5 | 3.1 | 9.7 | 64 |
| Brandon Ingram | 18.3 | 3 | 5.1 | 52 |
| Pascal Siakam | 7.3 | 2 | 4.5 | 5 |
| Victor Oladipo | 15.9 | 2.6 | 4.3 | 67 |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo | 16.9 | 4.3 | 7.7 | 79 |
The five other winners, aside from Siakam, were full-time starters who averaged 15 or more points per game before winning this award. Many players fended off contenders with more modest backgrounds. A year ago, Jordan Poole finished fourth despite rising from G-Leaguer to third-leading scorer in the championship. Graham from Devonte quadrupled his scoring output. It does not matter. The award does not honor the player who will be improving most. The award honors the player who improves in a very specific way.
In short, it has been the first-time All-Star award. Out of the 11 active players who have been victorious, nine did so in their first All-Star season. The 10th, Goran Dragic, missed the All-Star Game and earned an All-NBA selection months later.
The exception to this rule was CJ McCollum, and there were the 2016 guards selected to the Western Conference All-Star Team. The star team includes James Harden, Stephen Curry, Russell Westbrook, Chris Paul, Klay Thompson and Kobe Bryant. Bryant had been a fan vote in his final season. There was no room for newcomers.
That makes this a fairly simple award to bet on in a sense. While this is hardly an example of science, there is a straightforward formula here:
Points and touches are the most important thing in the NBA. If a player finds himself on a new roster and is willing to give him the ball, bet on him. If a player’s own team has let go of its veteran guards, bet on him.
Ideally, a player wants to be on a half-decent team. This trend has been going on a bit more recently. The players like Kevin Love and Danny Granger acquired it from the lottery, but a thing to remember is media voters weigh team performance into All-Star selections.
Keeping defense in the back of the mind is important. Antetokounmpo and Oladipo assembled All-Defensive teams while winning this award. Siakam and Randle were important parts of top-five defenses. But this has been more of a tiebreaker. There is a need to remember, D’Angelo Russell lost out to Siakam and Nikola Jokic lost out to Antetokounmpo.
Before diving into this year’s candidates, there are two more notes to keep in mind:
Second-year players do not get an opportunity to win this award. Monta Ellis is the only player to do it in this era. Third-year players, on the other hand, are regular and frequent winners. Six out of the past 12 winners were in their third season. Voters never liked rewarding rookie improvement.
Awards are “narrative” driven. Poole has averaged 25 points per game in the final 20 contests of Golden State. Morant spent most of that time out of the game with an injury. This did not matter. Voters had settled on Morant a long time ago.
From this perspective, the time to bet this award can be usually a week or two into the season. It is understood who the two or three candidates are. Even though one has been sacrificing odds, one is improving your chances of winning exponentially.
A look at this year’s market
The pool is divided into three groups based on their odds.
The favorites
Two players are favorites. Both players are reasonable bets for different reasons. Anthony Edwards is in the lead of the pack at +1100. Tyrese Haliburton is not lagging behind at +1200. Wager has been placed on Edwards.
The path leading to Edwards is relatively straightforward. Edward ended the regular season on an extremely high note. He jumped from 21 points per game in his first 60 games to more than 24 points in his last 11. He followed this performance by topping 25 points per game in the playoff. Rudy Gobert joined the team.
The presence of Gobert creates Edwards’ biggest obstacle. The incumbent All-Stars are Gobert and Karl-Anthony Towns. That does not guarantee that they will make it again. But it seems fairly rare for teams to get three All-Star selections unless it is a top seed.
There is a high chance that Edwards might get squeezed out by his own teammates. The Timberwolves are ready to hand the offense to Edwards.
Haliburton is Indiana’s point guard. Malcolm Brogdon is gone. Caris LeVert is gone. Haliburton is their last ball-handler. His scoring increased by three points per game after joining the Pacers last season. He is at 9.6 assists per game with the Pacers. He could have been ranked fourth in the NBA if he had done that over the full season.
The fear of a full-on tank in Indiana is a kind of issue, especially if the Pacers trades Buddy Hield and/or Myles Turner to the Lakers. But there has been an on-paper case if the Pacers will be good enough to keep Haliburton in the All-Star race.
This does not seem to be an award that tends to be kind to preseason favorites.
The middle of the market
The drop-off from Haliburton and Edwards to the next group of candidates has been immense. Everyone between the two favorites and 25-to-1 has displayed major red flags.
RJ Barrett (+1800) and Jalen Brunson (+1800) cancel each other out. Both will be losing shots. Both touches by playing next to Julius Randle and potentially Donovan Mitchell.
Cade Cunningham (+1800) and Jalen Green (+2200) are prevailing in their second season.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (+2000) plays on a tanker. Josh Giddey is taking on a bigger ball-handling role. This hurts the case of Gilgeous-Alexander. The spacing is lying in a terrible situation. The odds of a mysterious injury that can be knocking him out in February seem too high.
Zion Williamson (+2500) and LaMelo Ball (+2500) have been All-Star Games.
Anfernee Simons, Tyrese Maxey and Michael Porter Jr. possess +2500. Simons was in the eighth position in the voting last season. Maxey was sixth. Porter stood third in 2021. This does not preclude any player from winning as first-time All-Stars, but the bar is higher here. Voters credited the players with some improvement.
Jordan Poole (+2200) is not open the season as a starter. He might be deserving in the conversation on merit. But he might have too much trouble swaying voters from the bench.
Dejounte Murray almost won this award as a first-time All-Star in San Antonio last season. Murray has been gone. The Spurs have no starting point guard right now. The only player who started games at point guard last season was Tre Jones who averaged six points per game. The roster begs for someone to soak up possessions. Johnson averaged 15 points per game in the first 44 outings he played last season. But he jumped to 20.2 in his last 30 games.
A season ago the pick was OG Anunoby, and at +4000, much of the same logic still applies. The Raptors stand out compared to any team in the NBA at turning their wings into ball-handlers. The scoring of Anunoby has risen steadily each year of his career and was it not for injuries. He can be a two-time All-Defense selection.
If he is healthy, he continues to grow as a ball-handler like Siakam once did and remains the stellar defender he has always been. He has an opportunity to make his first All-Star Team on a fairly competitive Raptors roster. If Scottie Barnes was not here, the bet becomes a lot bigger.
The long shots
A long shot bet that was made is Talen Horton-Tucker at +6000. He has not been going to win the award partially because he could not shoot and partially because the Jazz are almost certain to tank this season. If they trade Donovan Mitchell to the Knicks, they can proceed to sell off their remaining veterans of note. A bad team is what Horton-Tucker requires. He thrived in Los Angeles when the Lakers let him take charge. Russell Westbrook denied him from getting those opportunities last season. That is not a problem in Utah.
The two former Lakers (Ingram and Randle) have acquired this award recently while another (Russell) finished in second. Putting aside the narrative nature of this award, that makes sense if a look is taken at what the Lakers do well. They possess a stellar track record of identifying talent.
Atlanta might add Dejounte Murray this offseason, but it also cleared up its wing glut by trading Kevin Huerter and Danilo Gallinari. Cam Reddish was getting dealt a year ago, and the Hawks have made it clear that they are expecting big things out of DeAndre Hunter.
His raw scoring numbers went down the lane last season, but his 3-point percentage hit a career-high. He walked into the NBA as a strong defender. If he has been the wing that makes Atlanta’s two-point guard system work, he will be going to sneak into this conversation. Injuries have been his worst enemy so far, but he might make a run at this award in his second season if he had stayed healthy.
There has been a flier in there somewhere. Orlando guards huddled in the same range with Markelle Fultz (+7500) barely edging out Cole Anthony (+8000) and Jalen Suggs (+10000). The Magic have compromised their front court.
Franz Wagner acts as a keeper and Paolo Banchero just got picked No. 1 overall. One of their goals this season will be figuring out the backcourt. There is some cash out value on one of these players. Fultz plays the best basketball of his career upon returning from his torn ACL. In a total of 18 games, he averaged 19.5 points and 9.9 assists per 36 minutes.
When the primary deficiency of a player is shooting and he gets to work with the NBA’s best shooting coach, there is going to be value in betting on him. Vinson led Ingram to win this award.