Permutations: Who needs what to reach the UEFA Nations League finals?
Permutations: Who needs what to reach the UEFA Nations League finals? After four rounds of games in June and two more matchdays in September, the UEFA Nations League has taken a summer break. Explore relegation and promotion difficulties as well as who needs what to reach next year’s finals.
UEFA LEAGUE A
Group A1
22 Sep: Croatia (7 points) vs Denmark (9), France (2) vs Austria (4)
25 Sep: Denmark vs France, Austria vs Croatia
If they win, Denmark will go on to the finals. Relegation is not an option for Denmark.
If Croatia loses, they will miss out on a place in the World Cup finals. To avoid relegation, they must avoid a loss or France’s loss.
In the event that Austria wins and Denmark loses, the Austrians will still be in the running for the finals. If Austria wins, they will be spared the punishment of being relegated.
In the event of a defeat, France will be demoted. Unfortunately for France, they will not be competing in the championship game.
Group A2
24 Sep: Spain (8) vs Switzerland (3), Czech Republic (4) vs Portugal (7)
27 Sep: Portugal vs Spain, Switzerland vs Czech Republic
If Spain wins and Portugal loses, they will qualify for the finals. There is no way to drop Spain.
If Portugal loses and Spain triumphs, they will be eliminated from the World Cup finals. To escape relegation, they must avoid defeat or Switzerland’s victory.
If the Czech Republic wins and Spain loses, they will have a shot at the championship game. With a win and a loss for Switzerland, they may avoid relegation.
If Switzerland loses to Spain and the Czech Republic beats Portugal, they will be relegated to League B. If Switzerland wins and Portugal fails to defeat the Czech Republic in the semifinals, Switzerland will still be in the running.
Group A3
23 Sep: Italy (5) vs England (2), Germany (6) vs Hungary (7)
26 Sep: England vs Germany, Hungary vs Italy
If Hungary defeats Germany and Italy loses to England, they will be guaranteed a place in the finals. If Hungary avoids defeat, or if England fails to win, they will be safe from relegation.
If Germany avoids loss vs Hungary, they will still be in the running for a place in the finals. If Germany wins, both games are tied, or if England loses, they will avoid relegation.
If Italy beats England, or if the other game ends in a tie, they will still be in the running for a place in the finals. If Italy wins, they will avoid relegation.
If England loses versus Italy, they will be kicked out of the tournament. The finals are out of reach for England.
Group A4
22 Sep: Poland (4) vs Netherlands (10), Belgium (7) vs Wales (1)
25 Sep: Netherlands vs Belgium, Wales vs Poland
If the Netherlands defeats Poland and neither Poland nor Belgium wins, nor if the Netherlands draw and Belgium lose, the Netherlands will go to the finals. The Netherlands is ineligible for relegation at this time.
If Belgium beats Wales, if they draw and the Netherlands lose, or if the Netherlands lose and Belgium wins, they will still be in the finals contention. Despite the fact that they may be in a three-way tie for 2nd-4th place with Poland, Belgium will not be relegated.
Poland will be safe from relegation if they win or succeed, or if Poland draw and Wales lose. At best, Poland will finish in a three-way tie for first place, which Belgium will win.
In the event that Wales loses to Belgium and Poland avoids loss, they will be relegated. Wales cannot reach/acquire the finals.
UEFA LEAGUE B
Group B1
21 Sep: Scotland (6) vs Ukraine (7)
24 Sep: Scotland vs Republic of Ireland (4), Armenia (3) vs Ukraine
27 Sep: Ukraine vs Scotland, Republic of Ireland vs Armenia
In order to reach a conclusion, Scotland must host Ukraine (other than the winners will be safe from relegation, and a Ukraine win would rule Ireland and Armenia out of the promotion and a Scotland win would rule Armenia out of promotion).
If Ukraine wins, they will avoid relegation.
In the event of a victory, Scotland would avoid relegation from UEFA Euro 2016.
If Ukraine wins, Ireland will miss out on promotion.
If Ukraine or Scotland win, Armenia would not be able to advance.
Group B2
24 Sep: Israel (5) vs Albania (1)
27 Sep: Albania vs Iceland (3)
If Israel prevails, they will go up to League A.
If Israel does not win, Iceland will still be in the running for a promotion, but they will need to overcome Albania to do it.
To have a chance of making the playoffs, Albania needs to win.
Russia was relegated.
Group B3
23 Sep: Finland (4) vs Romania (3), Bosnia and Herzegovina (8) vs Montenegro (7)
26 Sep: Montenegro vs Finland, Romania vs Bosnia and Herzegovina
A win for Bosnia and Herzegovina would see them rise from Division B to League A. Bosnia and Herzegovina is ineligible for relegation from Euro 2016.
If they can escape defeat, Montenegro will remain in the running for promotion. In order for Montenegro to avoid relegation, they must either win or draw and Romania fail to win.
If Finland wins and Bosnia and Herzegovina loses, they will remain in promotion contention. With a victory, Finland will avoid relegation.
If they lose versus Finland, Romania will be kicked out of the tournament. If Romania wins and the other game ends in a tie, they will still be in the running for promotion.
Group B4
24 Sep: Slovenia (2) vs Norway (10), Serbia (7) vs Sweden (3)
27 Sep: Norway vs Serbia, Sweden vs Slovenia
If Norway wins and Serbia does not beat Sweden, or if Norway draws and Serbia loses, Norway will be promoted to League A. Norway is ineligible to be demoted.
As long as Serbia wins, they’ll have a good shot at promotion. Serbia is ineligible for relegation at this time.
With a win over Slovenia and a loss by Norway against Slovenia, Sweden will avoid relegation. The promotion of Sweden is not possible.
If Slovenia loses and Sweden wins, they will be demoted to League C. Slovenia is not a country that can be marketed.
UEFA LEAGUE C
Group C1
22 Sep: Türkiye (12) vs Luxembourg (7), Lithuania (0) vs Faroe Islands (4)
25 Sep: Faroe Islands vs Türkiye, Luxembourg vs Lithuania
League B will be opened up to Türkiye if they win out. Turkey will not be relegated.
If Luxembourg wins, they will remain in the running for promotion. Luxembourg is ineligible for the drop.
The Faroe Islands can avoid the relegation playoffs if they win their game against Iceland. We can’t put the Faroe Islands on the map.
To escape the relegation play-outs, Lithuania must win. Lithuania can’t be pushed up the rankings.
Group C2
24 Sep: Cyprus (2) vs Greece (12, promoted), Northern Ireland (2) vs Kosovo (6)
27 Sep: Greece (promoted) vs Northern Ireland, Kosovo vs Cyprus
League B promotion is Greece’s as a result of their group victory.
If Kosovo wins, or if Cyprus loses, or if both games end in a tie, they will be safe from relegation play-outs.
Relegation play-outs or safety from relegation cannot be confirmed on Matchday 5 for Cyprus and Northern Ireland.
Group C3
22 Sep: Kazakhstan (10) vs Belarus (2), Slovakia (6) vs Azerbaijan (4)
25 Sep: Slovakia vs Belarus, Azerbaijan vs Kazakhstan
If Kazakhstan wins, or if they draw and Slovakia loses, or if Slovakia and Azerbaijan tie, they will be promoted to League B. Kazakhstan is ineligible for the drop.
If Slovakia triumphs and Kazakhstan fails to do so, they will both remain in the running for promotion. If Slovakia wins, both games are tied, or Belarus loses, they will avoid relegation.
In the event of a win for Azerbaijan and a loss for Kazakhstan, they will remain in contention for promotion. In the event that Azerbaijan wins and Belarus loses, Azerbaijan will avoid relegation.
If Belarus loses and Azerbaijan escapes defeat, or if Belarus draw and Azerbaijan win, Belarus will enter the relegation play-outs. If you want to get people talking about Belarus, you can’t.
Group C4
23 Sep: Georgia (10) vs North Macedonia (7), Bulgaria (3) vs Gibraltar (1)
26 Sep: North Macedonia vs Bulgaria, Gibraltar vs Georgia
If Georgia avoids defeat, they will be promoted to the second division. Georgia is ineligible for the Conference USA playoffs because of its history of domestic violence.
To have a chance of promotion, North Macedonia needs to win. Relegation is not an option for North Macedonia.
If Bulgaria defeats Gibraltar, they will avoid the relegation play-outs. In order for Bulgaria to be promoted, it must be eliminated.
If Gibraltar loses to Bulgaria, they will be forced to play in the relegation play-offs. Promotion of Gibraltar is not possible.
LEAGUE D
Group D1
22 Sep: Latvia (12) vs Moldova (7), Liechtenstein (0) vs Andorra (4)
25 Sep: Moldova vs Liechtenstein, Andorra vs Latvia
It’s a promotion to League C for Latvia if they can escape defeat.
Moldova has to win to have a chance of making the playoffs.
Andorra is unable to be elevated.
It is not possible to elevate the status of Liechtenstein.
Group D2
23 Sep: Estonia (6) vs Malta (6)
26 Sep: San Marino (0) vs Estonia
If Estonia avoids defeat, they will be promoted to the third tier of European football.
Estonia must lose by two goals for Malta to be promoted to League C. Malta needs Estonia to lose to San Marino if they win by a single goal.
There is a good chance that San Marino will come in third.
Permutations: Who needs what to reach the UEFA Nations League finals